The Wall Street flood in downtown St. Paul, MN the other day pointed toward the possibility that the coming prayer battle (2/17 to 3/18) may involve the stock market in NY.
It appears that some business insiders believe that the there will be a very large market “correction” (i.e., downturn) by April. They have purchased millions of dollars worth of something called “put options.” That simploy means that they are betting that the market will drop before April. Most of the time, no one buys more than 500 put options, but one mysterious investor has bought 150,000 put options at $75 apiece. In other words, he was willing to bet more than $11 million that the market will drop by April when those contracts expire.
Here is an article from February 6, 2013,
A new trade just appeared that suggests there will be a market event in the near future. Last week somebody put on a call spread on the VIX using the April 20 and 25 puts. They bought 150,000 contracts for a net of $75 per contract. That is an $11,250,000 bet that the VIX will move over 20 over the next 60 days. You would have to be VERY confident in your outlook to risk $11 million on a directional position with the VIX at five year lows and the markets trying to break out to new highs.
The same article comments on this, adding more details:
So what does all of this mean? Well, it could mean absolutely nothing or it could mean that there are people out there that actually have insider knowledge that a market crash is coming. Evaluate the evidence below and decide for yourself…
For some reason, corporate insiders have chosen this moment to unload huge amounts of stock. According to a CNN article, corporate insiders are now selling nine times more of their own shares than they are buying…
In a more long-term outlook, we note that the Baltic Dry Index has again collapsed to levels not seen since late 2008 in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse (Sept. 2008).
The BDI measures overseas shipping, which is a good indicator of how much trade is taking place between nations. A collapse of the BDI means that many ships are sitting idle in a harbor somewhere. Apparently, people have held off on purchasing things, at least from overseas suppliers, in recent months.
On February 12 President Obama is going to give his State of the Union speech. No doubt he will picture the economy with rose-colored classes, since his job description as president is to inspire confidence–not to tell the truth, which the people hate to hear. But the fact is, the party is over. This American generation is used to getting free or cheap goods made overseas, and because those exporting countries have kept those dollars, or have re-invested them in Treasury bonds, our payments have been put off into the future.
The problem is that since 2008 those other countries have begun to be more reluctant to buy Treasury bonds. So in recent months the Federal Reserve has had to step in and buy them to the tune of $45 billion worth per month. How long can it keep up that pace? This has now gotten to the place where the Fed is literally buying MORE than the Treasury is selling. In other words, others are selling faster than they are buying, and so the Fed is making up the difference again.
(CNSnews.com) – So far this calendar year, the Federal Reserve has bought up more U.S. government debt than the U.S. Treasury has issued.
Thus, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of U.S. government debt in this calendar year have exceeded the Treasury’s net debt issues by about $3.9 billion.
Also last week, the Federal Reserve announced that it “will continue purchasing additional … longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.”
If the Fed continues to purchase $45 billion in additional federal debt each month in 2013 it will buy up another $540 billion in federal debt this year alone.
The government has been saying for years that we are beginning to recover from the collapse of 2008. It was supposed to recover in 2009, then in 2010, then in 2011, then in 2012, and now again in 2013. We are not really recovering. We are crawling along at the bottom of the cliff that we fell off in 2008. There is no way to recover to previous levels, because the debt level gives no confidence to investors. Thus, corporations are saving their money for a rainy day. In other words, they believe that the rainy day is yet to come.
And now we are told that some very wealthy investors are once again betting that the markets will go down by April. It has been pointed out that those people have done the same just before market collapses in the past. They do their homework; this is their business, after all.